Weather prediction market trading — $500 bankroll experiment
Account idle since Feb 16. The Feb 16 resting orders (Houston ≥78°F, New Orleans ≥73°F) expired unfilled — market ask stayed at 100¢, our limit was 98¢.
$482.27 cash available · Waiting for next A-grade opportunity
| Date | Day | Trades | Wins | Losses | Daily P&L | Cumulative P&L | Account Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14 | Day 1 | 8 | 0 | — | -$25.00 | -$25.00 | $475.01 | Thin margins. Lesson: new scorer blocks <2x MAE |
| Feb 15 | Day 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | +$1.25 | -$23.49 | $476.51 | All 5 positions settled successfully |
| Feb 16 | Day 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 | -$22.24 | $477.76 | 2 resting orders expired unfilled (98¢ limit, market at 100¢) |
| Feb 17–19 | Day 4–6 | 0 | — | — | $0.00 | -$22.24 | $477.76 | No trades — account idle, scanning for A-grade setups |
| Market | Position | Contracts | Entry | Cost | Profit | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minneapolis ≥46.5°F | NO | 23 | 96¢ | $22.08 | +$0.92 | ✅ WIN |
| New Orleans ≥78.5°F | NO | 25 | 95¢–96¢ | $23.80 | +$1.20 | ✅ WIN |
| Atlanta ≥56.5°F | NO | 25 | 95¢–96¢ | $23.92 | +$1.08 | ✅ WIN |
| Houston ≥75.5°F | NO | 25 | 95¢ | $23.75 | +$1.25 | ✅ WIN |
| New Orleans ≥78.5°F (2) | NO | 1 | 95¢ | $0.95 | +$0.05 | ✅ WIN |
Feb 15 total: +$1.25 profit across 5 positions, 99 contracts. All NO bets on extreme temperature strikes settled in our favor.
| Cron Job | Schedule | Last Run | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daily P&L Snapshot | Midnight UTC | Feb 20 | ✅ OK |
| Settlement Check | 7:00 PM EST | Feb 19 | ✅ OK |
| A-Grade Scanner | 6a/10a/2p/5p EST | Feb 19 | ✅ OK |